Is it working?

The draft proposes a 2030 target range of 398-440 MtCO₂e, higher than the current 350-420 MtCO₂e range. The proposed higher emissions range reflects South Africa's slower-than-planned coal transition and energy security priorities, raising questions about alignment with the country's international climate leadership rhetoric. Civil society stakeholders raised concerns over both ambition and process after key technical reports were released only just before the consultation closed. Adaptation goals have broadened, now aligned with the PCC’s anticipate-adapt-recover framework and ecosystem-based priorities. But key proposals such as a Treasury-backed loss-and-damage fund were dropped. Adaptation still receives just 12% of climate finance, well below the $8bn annual need.

Actions

The DFFE has concluded initial consultations on sectoral emissions targets and is refining them for inter-ministerial approval. In October, Minister Dion George indicated that the NDCs are ready for publication ahead of COP30. A carbon budget methodology has been developed and piloted. But key gaps remain in institutional coordination, financing strategies and implementation capacity. The Just Energy Transition Partnership funding remains largely unspent, with only $2bn disbursed by early 2025. Carbon budget implementation for significant emitters has been delayed beyond the original timeline.

Are there plans?

The DFFE has structured the update around lessons from 2021, aligning with the Climate Change Act and Just Transition Framework. Carbon tax reforms are under way, with the Treasury proposing reduced tax-free allowances from 60% to 50% in 2026, declining further to 30% by 2030, while increasing carbon offset allowances to 20%. Current rates stand at R236/tCO2e (approximately USD $12.50/tCO2e), with planned increases to USD 30/tCO2e by 2030 and USD 120/tCO2e by 2050. However, the Climate Change Act has been criticised for lacking penalties for excess emissions, instead relying on higher carbon tax rates for non-compliance.

Is it on the agenda?

Yes. The Climate Change Act, signed in July 2024 and effective from March 2025, provides the legal mandate for NDC updates and implementation. The act requires sectoral emission targets every five years and introduces mandatory carbon budgets for significant emitters. The process has Cabinet backing and integrates with broader government planning through mandatory alignment of policies with climate goals across all government levels.

Goals

The NDC update process aims to establish South Africa's enhanced climate commitments for 2030-2035, demonstrating the country's "highest possible ambition" while balancing socioeconomic development, equity and climate justice. The process seeks to align South Africa's climate response with the Paris Agreement's temperature goals of limiting warming to 1.5°C, while ensuring a just transition that supports economic development and poverty eradication.

Documents

• Document One
• Document Two

Departments / Govt Institutions

Department of Forestry, Fisheries and Environment The Presidency